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November 2011
This years season
began with much higher than normal prices, then proceeded to rise up
to stratospheric levels.
Many buyers held back early in the expectation of a massive crop and
falling prices from Bolivia.
When they eventually bit the bullet and bought, this only added fuel
to an already raging fire.
Thus we saw F.O.B. levels start around $3.40 per lb and finish at
near $5.20 per lb.
At the moment, the price is the only bearish factor in play.
Production has ceased and new crop shipments will only start to get
under way in Feb/March 2012, weather dependent.
This means arrival April at earliest in reality.
There are pockets of spot stock available in Europe but fierce
resistance exists to the sky high prices, so not much is moving at
present, however it is very probable that 2012 crop will arrive to
bare floorboards.
The lack of material in the supply pipeline is bound to keep prices
high well into Spring 2012 and maybe further.
'High prices have long arms' so it is logical, indeed, conventional
wisdom, that the volume of raw seed collected will be abundant next
year. But that was not the case this last year.
Several factors are at play: Brazil is exporting considerable volume
of inshell for cracking in the far East, especially China.
They are also protecting their own interests by clamping down on the
cross border trade with Bolivia, who need to import Brazilian seed
to keep their factories running.
Incredibly, Brazil is a net importer of shelled Brazilnuts due to
the burgeoning demand in their healthy economy.
All of this is written with the backdrop of a wider recession, or
worse, possible in the global economy. Only one thing
is certain in these uncertain times: People will NOT stop eating
nuts!
We hope you
have enjoyed this report.
Contact us for any requirements you may have
and we will endeavour to give you a firm price.
Regards
Tony Ayre
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